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 Agriculture has played a major role in human history, and agricultural progress have been crucial contributor to socio-economic improvement but its importance has
been widely lost from sight since its success lead in most case to a significant decrease
of the food share on overall household spending: In 2007, whereas one third of the world's
work forces were employed in agriculture, agricultural production accounts for
less than five percent of the gross world product (an aggregate of all gross domestic
products).
Agriculture has expanded vastly in geographical coverage and yields. Throughout
this expansion, new technologies and new crops were developed. Agricultural practices
as irrigation, crop rotation, fertilizers, and pesticides were developed long ago for better productivity, but have made great strides in the past century.
Revolution in Agriculture:
 A remarkable shift in agricultural practices has occurred over the past century
driven by new technologies: Mechanization, synthetic nitrogen, mined rock phosphate,
pesticides have greatly contributed to increase yields in the early 20th century
in return increased supply of grains and improved breeding led to cheaper livestock
and increase milk availability. Further, yield increases were obtained when high-yield
varieties of common staple grains such as rice, wheat, and corn (maize) were introduced
as a part of the Green Revolution which exported technologies of the developed world
to the developing countries and allowed the world
to produce food surplus.
With passage of time nevertheless, agriculture productivity gains started diminishing
and wider consideration emerged : concept of soil conservation, nutrient management
became increasingly recognized .where as Soil conservation and nutrient management
have been important concerns since the 1950s, by the most advanced farmers who took at heart a stewardship role on their land, increasing consumer awareness of agricultural issues led to
the rise of community-supported agriculture, local food movement,
and commercial
organic farming.
Agricultural Output Equilibrium:
 The last 2 years have seen world food prices rocking high, creating global concern
and local crisis. Several factors pushed up price of grain used for human food
and animal feed in poultry , dairy cows and other meat production, resulting in higher
prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the
year.
Initial trigger of late 2006 price spikes included unseasonable droughts
in grain producing nations and rising oil prices. Oil prices further heightened costs of
fertilizers, transport, and mechanized agriculture. Increasing
use of bio fuels in developed countries and increasing demand for a diet shifting toward more animal
product consumption
across the expanding middle-class populations of Asia. These factors coupled with
falling world food stock piles have all contributed to the
world wide spectacular rise in agricultural
commodities.
In 2008, nevertheless prices have dropped significantly and world grain prices have
fallen
by over 50 percent from their record highs. International prices for vegetable oils,
oilseeds or dairy products have also drifted downwards.
But the gradual return to equilibrium in food markets should be reviewed in a longer-term
perspective:
- Cereal stocks need to be replenished and low prices would again divert supply from food
to fuel. With only 433 million tones in opening stocks, the cereal stocks - use
ratio in 2008/09 is at its second lowest in three decades. To bring stocks back to their pre-crisis levels will require 40 percent production increase
in 2008.
- Bio energy has already absorbed 100 million tones of cereals in 2007/08. Falling feedstock
prices and new bio ethanol production capacities arriving could stimulate new demand and thus moderate more drastic decline in prices.
 A glance at the most recent production statistics reveals that most of the
production increase of the last two years arose in
developed countries. The benefits of higher prices have not accrued to producers
in many developing countries; for
their supply response was small in 2007 and
virtually zero in 2008. The reasons are manifold including:
- Higher prices of key agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, seeds and energy,
made
it more difficult for small farmers to step up production. Particularly, poor
subsistence producers have been confronted with higher input prices without producing
a marketable surplus that would earn them higher revenues.
- Export taxes and restrictions meant that high international prices were not always
and fully reflected in domestic markets, burdening even commercial farmers with
higher costs and stagnant output prices.
- To the extent prices do reflect an anticipated slow-down in economic growth that constricts
demand; lower prices may even be associated with more poverty and hunger.
The recent decline in world food prices should not drive to conclusion
that the fundamental, longer-term issues have become irrelevant. Land and water constraints
remain for most part unaddressed, investments in rural infrastructure
and agricultural research remain low, agricultural inputs remain expensive relative
to farm-gate prices, and the need to adapt to climate change is more urgent
than ever before.
It is therefore important to seize this window of opportunity to reflect on how
to avoid subsequent crises by addressing the longer-term challenges.
Agricultural Challenges:
-
 World population is projected to grow from 6.5 billion in 2005 to nearly 9.2 billion
by 2050. To feed a population of more than 9 billion, global food production must
nearly double by 2050. The population growth will take place in developing countries
and it will occur in urban areas, which will swell by 3.2 billion people whereas
as rural population contracts. This means that a shrinking rural work force will
have to be more productive and deliver more output from fewer resources. Higher
productivity requires more investment in agriculture, machinery, implements, tractors,
water pumps, harvesters, etc., as well as skilled and better trained farmers and
better functioning supply chains. - Fewer farmers will have to feed a more populous world with fewer resources.
One way would be for world agriculture to expand its land basis and use some of
the nearly 4.2 billion hectares potentially available for rain fed crop production
(only 1.5 billion ha are currently in use). But this would not be possible without further
environmental damage and increased greenhouse gas emission. Other avenue would
be to tap into yet unused yield-enhancing technologies, which could double productivity
for many crops in many countries. However, such potential can only be realized if
farmers have improved access to inputs, apply better fertilizers in more abundance,
make use of better seeds, improve their farming and management skills and expand
land under modern irrigation.
- In addition to rising resource scarcity, global agriculture will have to cope with
the burden of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
has documented the likely impact of climate change on agriculture in great detail.
If temperatures rise by more than 2oC, global food production potential
is expected to contract severely and yields of major crops may fall globally. The
declines will be particularly pronounced in lower-latitude regions. . In Africa, Asia
and Latin America, for instance, yields could decline by 20 ~ 40 percent In addition,
severe weather occurrences such as droughts and floods are likely to intensify and
cause greater crop and livestock losses.
- Rapidly rising energy prices have created an added challenge for global food supplies.
Rising fossil energy prices mean that agriculture will become increasingly important
as a supplier to the energy market. :the potential demand from the energy market
is so large that it has potential to change the world’s traditional agricultural market systems completely.
Areas to Address:
 These challenges can be addressed in particular in following areas:
- Improve Management at farm level of:
o Nutrient
o Soil
o Water
- Improve agricultural productivity through better management of agricultural practices
and better quality farm input
- Development and conservation of natural resources.
- Expansion and improvement of rural infrastructure , broadening of market access and better repartition of food value chain.
- Strengthen capacity for knowledge generation and dissemination
References
- FAO – Food Outlook Nov ’08 ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/ai474e/ai474e00.pdf
- FAO Report ‘Fertilizer Requirement in 2015 & 2030’
- Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture
- Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution
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